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7 considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 8 peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main 9 development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation 10 (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC c...
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| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.3962 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf |
| Summary: | 7 considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 8 peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main 9 development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation 10 (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer 11 timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent 12 with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two 13 different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, 14 ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations 15 over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts 16 developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted 17 m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season. 18 Citation: Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence 19 rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, XXXXXX, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385. 21 |
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