since 1967 by the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical
Monterey, Calif., is described and applied to the 1967-71 North Atlantic tropical cyclones for forecast intervals up to 72 hr. The MOHATT scheme involves steering of the center of the cyclone by geostrophic winds derived from heavily smoothed isobaric height fields (both analyzed and prognostic) and...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.1981 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/101/mwr-101-03-0206.pdf |
| Summary: | Monterey, Calif., is described and applied to the 1967-71 North Atlantic tropical cyclones for forecast intervals up to 72 hr. The MOHATT scheme involves steering of the center of the cyclone by geostrophic winds derived from heavily smoothed isobaric height fields (both analyzed and prognostic) and a statistical correction determined by the behavior of the first 12 hr of the steering forecast. The developmental sample (1967-70) used to establish the potential accuracy of MOHATT indicates 700 mb as the optimum steering level, but the fully operational test in 1971 suggests that the 850-mb level may be an improvement for forecast intervals beyond 36 hr. An analysis of the 1971 forecast data shows errors (expressed as nautical miles per hour of forecast interval) ranging from 6.1 kt at 12 hr (252 cases) to 5.1 kt at |
|---|