CHAPTER 8 PLACING THE RESULTS IN CONTEXT Revisions of Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Long-range projections of physical, economic, and ecological systems often prove to be wrong, because they involve combinations of assumptions with varying degrees of certainty. Moreover, with a highly visible public policy issue such as climate change, the projections themselves can motivate people...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.384.2298 http://papers.risingsea.net/federal_reports/probability-chapter_8.pdf |
| Summary: | Long-range projections of physical, economic, and ecological systems often prove to be wrong, because they involve combinations of assumptions with varying degrees of certainty. Moreover, with a highly visible public policy issue such as climate change, the projections themselves can motivate people to take actions that render early projections obsolete (e.g., projections of a 4˚C global warming could lead people to reduce emissions so that the warming is only 2˚C). This report and other recent analyses suggest that sea level is likely to rise less than estimated by early reports on the subject (see Table 8-1). 1 The lower estimates have resulted from both a downward revision of future temperatures and an emerging consensus that Antarctica will probably not contribute to |
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