for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula
Our object in this paper is to study the temperature variations in the Antarctic Peninsula using multiple regression models with correlated errors admitting ARMA models with nonGaussian innovations. We found that the fitted models adequately describe the variations. The data we consider are minimum/...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2005
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.383.7396 http://www.mims.manchester.ac.uk/research/probability-statistics/research-reports/psrr05-2005.pdf |
| Summary: | Our object in this paper is to study the temperature variations in the Antarctic Peninsula using multiple regression models with correlated errors admitting ARMA models with nonGaussian innovations. We found that the fitted models adequately describe the variations. The data we consider are minimum/maximum monthly temperatures recorded at the Faraday station by the British Antarctic Survey for the period from January 1951 to December 1995. The time series models considered here are novel in the sense that the linear ARMA models have innovations which have extreme value distributions, and the maximum likelihood estimation described here can be widely used in many disciplines. The time series models we fitted indicate that the mean of the minimum temperatures is likely to increase over the next 50 years and the temperatures will be above 0 o C during the summer months which means that the melting season will increase, creating more climatic and ecological problems. Although the mean |
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