Economic growth, poverty reduction and managing climate change

Stern Review underestimated the risks. • Emissions are at the top end or above projections (e.g. IPCC AR4, SRES A1) (Peters, et al. 2012). Some effects coming through more quickly or severely than anticipated: extent of Arctic Sea ice decline; ocean acidification and functioning of ocean systems. •...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Nicholas Stern
Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
Format: Text
Language:English
Subjects:
Arctic
Climate change
Ice
Ocean acidification
permafrost
Sea ice
Online Access:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.361.5414
http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/environ/pdf/040213.pdf
Description
Summary:Stern Review underestimated the risks. • Emissions are at the top end or above projections (e.g. IPCC AR4, SRES A1) (Peters, et al. 2012). Some effects coming through more quickly or severely than anticipated: extent of Arctic Sea ice decline; ocean acidification and functioning of ocean systems. • Interactions of climate, ecosystems, planetary boundaries (Rockström, et al. 2009) mostly omitted from models and look more worrying. Some feedbacks and tipping points such as thawing permafrost omitted from models look more serious. All this underlines further the potential for radical transformation in how and where people can live: migration and conflict omitted from models. And see further below on problems with modelling. Technical progress faster than anticipated then; political will more problematic.

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