Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended-Range Prediction of Strong and Long-Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter

It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, the lead prediction time can exceed 2 weeks in certain cases. We find that the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is crucial for extended-r...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Main Authors: Ma, Xueying, Mu, Mu, Dai, Guokun, Han, Zhe, Li, Chunxiang, Jiang, Zhina
Format: Report
Language:English
Published: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION 2022
Subjects:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION
INCREASED QUASI STATIONARITY
EXTREME COLD EVENTS
PART II
AMPLIFICATION
PERSISTENCE
IMPACT
ONSET
PREDICTABILITY
WEATHER
Arctic
Barents Sea
Okhotsk
Greenland
Greenland Sea
okhotsk sea
Sea ice
Online Access:http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/178614
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036282
Description
Summary:It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, the lead prediction time can exceed 2 weeks in certain cases. We find that the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is crucial for extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting Ural blocking (UB) formation. By applying the rotated empirical orthogonal function-based particle swarm optimization algorithm, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation is calculated with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, to identify the optimally growing boundary errors in extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting UB formation. It is found that SIC perturbations in the Greenland Sea (GS), Barents Sea (BS), and Okhotsk Sea (OKS) are important for strong and long-lasting UB formation prediction in four pentads. Further analysis reveals that the SIC perturbations in these areas first influence the local temperature field through the diabatic heating process and further affect the temperature field in the Ural sector mainly by advection and convection processes. Moreover, the zonal winds in the Ural sector are adjusted by the thermal wind balance, thus affecting UB formation. The local characteristics of the SIC perturbations indicate that the GS, BS, and OKS may be sensitive areas in regard to extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting UB formation, which can provide scientific support for the SIC target observations in the future.

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