Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results

• Main Author: Chen,Shu-Heng;Wang,Sun-Chong ;Tseng,Jie-Jun ;Li,Sai-Ping
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2006
• Subjects: avian influenza;futures exchange;market; Avian flu
• Online Access: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw//handle/140.119/23293; http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/bitstream/140.119/23293/1/birdFlu06.pdf

The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting.