Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results
The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection...
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
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2006
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| Online Access: | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw//handle/140.119/23293 http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/bitstream/140.119/23293/1/birdFlu06.pdf |
| Summary: | The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting. |
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