| Summary: | 本文根据北疆地区20个具有代表性的基本气象台站1961～1996年的年最大雪深、月平均气温和月降水量的观测记录，分析了北疆地区气候变化特征，结果表明，近36年来，北疆气候变化和全球一样有变暖的趋势。同时用平均差值法、最小二乘法、和自回归滑动平均法三种统计模式检验了北疆地区季节性积雪、冬季降水量和冬季平均气温的长期变化趋势，结果表明，近36年来北疆地区季节性积雪在区域气候变暖的背景下，呈长期增加的趋势。这与表藏高原积雪、南极水陆和格陵兰冰盖表面积雪的积累相一致。另外，北疆地区冬季气温和降水的长期变化趋势也是增加的，并且年最大雪深与冬季气温之间存在弱的负相关关系，而与冬季降水之间呈显著的正相关关系。通过影响因子分析证明，北疆地区季节性积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖导致冬季降水的增加所致。In the paper, the characteristics of climate change in north Xinjiang is analyzed based on the observed data of daily snow cover depth, monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation collected at 20 basic meteorological stations over the period from 1961 to 1996 in north Xinjiang. The analyzed results show that the regional climate in north Xinjiang is warming as global warming during recent 36 years. The long-term change trend of seasonal snow cover, precipitation and average air temperature in winter in north Xinjiang is tested by using three statistical models which conclude the average difference method, the least square method, and self-regression slope AR(1)process. The results show that the seasonal snow cover in north Xinjiang has increased over a long period of time since 36 years under the regional climate warming, which accords with accumulation of snow cover on the Tibetan plateau, Antarctica and Greenland. Moreover, the air temperature and precipitation in winter has also increased in the long-term trend since recent 36 years. A significant positive correlation and a weak negative correlation exist between the annual maximum Snowcover thickness and precipitation in winter and between the former and average air temperature in winter respectively. The analysis of the effective factors proves that the increases of annual maximum snow cover depth is mainly caused by the increases of precipitation in winter under regional climate warming.
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