Absence of an internal multidecadal oscillation in the North Atlantic has consequences for anticipating the future of marine ecosystems

• Published in: Climate Research
• Main Authors: Beaugrand, G, Faillettaz, Robin, Kirby, R.R.
• Other Authors: Sciences et Technologies Halieutiques (STH), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04203695; https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01676

The North Atlantic marine ecosystem has been expected to adjust imminently to a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Recent results suggest, however, that the AMO is not a regular internal source of variability, but has been driven by both volcanism and sulphate aerosol emissions that have influenced temperature negatively, and a period of greenhouse gas accumulation causing temperatures to be higher than normal. The demise of the AMO removes the expected and imminent cyclical change from the current warm phase to a negative cool phase in the North Atlantic. Here, we discuss the implications of this new finding for the near-future of North Atlantic marine ecosystems in a context of rapid climate warming.