Connection between Climatic Change and International Food Prices: Evidence from Robust Long-range Cross-correlation Coefficient with Sliding Windows Approach

• Main Author: Dhifaoui, Zouhaier
• Other Authors: University of Sousse
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: Food security robust long-range cross-correlation coefficient bivariate Hurst exponent NAO index international food prices; Food security; robust long-range cross-correlation coefficient; bivariate Hurst exponent; NAO index; international food prices; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04181824; https://hal.science/hal-04181824/document; https://hal.science/hal-04181824/file/Manuscript.pdf

Due to its fundamental connection to food prices, climate change is crucial to the development of the countries. Although the widespread influence of climate change on the crop yields of the main agricultural commodities are well known, the impact of climatic change on the price of food still remains uncertain. This study explores the impact of the most well-known climate index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, on the international food prices. For this goal, a new robust power-law cross-correlation coefficient is used. First, we determine the statistically critical value for power-law cross-correlation coefficient. Second, we obtain the color map of such coefficient by using the sliding windows approach for different time scales, and we deduce a time-varying version of such coefficient. Our results suggested that large increments of the NAO index are followed by large increments of the different international food prices for short and long-term scales. Accordingly, the NAO index influences the international foods price.