Impact of climate change on soil frost and future winter flooding
International audience Soil frost amplifies winter runoff generation in the northern hemisphere and leads to large floods and property damages by enlarging the contributing area because of a reduced the infiltration capacity of permeable surfaces. Climate change is altering the hydrological cycle, e...
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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| Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04176935 https://hal.science/hal-04176935/document https://hal.science/hal-04176935/file/D5_46CQ4KB_Zaqout.pdf |
| Summary: | International audience Soil frost amplifies winter runoff generation in the northern hemisphere and leads to large floods and property damages by enlarging the contributing area because of a reduced the infiltration capacity of permeable surfaces. Climate change is altering the hydrological cycle, especially in cold regions that are more sensitive to temperature warming than temperate areas due to its impacts on winter precipitation and snowmelt patterns, and thus, affecting soil freezing and thawing. The goal of this study was to assess the long-term trends in soil frost formation in different regions of Iceland (66°N). The Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model was used to simulate soil temperature and frost depth at three sites experiencing different winter climatic conditions. The model accurately predicted soil temperature within the 1 m horizon at the studied sites over 20 years (R2 = 0.90–0.96). Frost depth and soil temperature differed substantially between locations in the South and North/East. Soil temperature increased at statistically significant rate (0.015°C/year) at two coastal sites in the past 74 years. The maximum annual frost depth decreased at a rate ranging from 0.18 to 0.21 cm/year. The initial findings of this study suggest that soil frost is site specific and need to be accounted for when evaluating future flood risks. Numerical modeling is an important tool for overcoming the shortage of soil measurements. Le gel du sol amplifie la génération de ruissellement hivernal dans l’hémisphère nord et entraîne de grandes inondations et des dommages matériels car il agrandit la zone contributive en réduisant la capacité d’infiltration des surfaces perméables. Le changement climatique modifie le cycle hydrologique, en particulier dans les régions froides qui sont plus sensibles au réchauffement de la température que les régions tempérées en raison de ses impacts sur les précipitations hivernales et les modèles de fonte des neiges, et donc, affectant le gel et le dégel des sols. Le but de ... |
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