Last millennium climate changes over the Antarctic Peninsula and southern Patagonia in CESM-LME simulations: Differences between Medieval Climate Anomaly and present-day temperatures

• Published in: Quaternary Science Reviews
• Main Authors: Silvestri, Gabriel, Berman, Ana Laura, de Vleeschouwer, Francois, Wainer, Ilana
• Other Authors: Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos Buenos Aires (IFAECI), Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas Buenos Aires (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Buenos Aires (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires Buenos Aires (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires Buenos Aires (UBA)-Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas Buenos Aires (CONICET)-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales Buenos Aires (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires Buenos Aires (UBA)-Universidad de Buenos Aires Buenos Aires (UBA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Patagonia; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03835366; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107273

International audience This paper describes differences between Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and present-day temperatures in the area composed of the Antarctic Peninsula, southern Patagonia, and the surrounding southern oceans. The investigation is conducted with the simulation results from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) considering the impact of each natural (volcanic activity and solar variability) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gas, ozone-aerosols and land use/land cover) individual forcing relative to the full forced simulations. Model results show generalized warming during the MCA in the study area. However, the simulated MCA temperatures are significantly colder than present-day mean values due to the influence of increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations since the beginning of the modern Industrial Era in the ∼1850s. In fact, model runs in which only natural forcings were applied show that, in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing, present-day temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and southern Patagonia would be lower than or similar to those during the MCA. The study demonstrates the value of paleoclimate proxy–model comparisons but also highlights the limitations of current available proxy information to perform that integration in the study area.