Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Beaugrand, Gregory, Edwards, Martin, Brander, Keith, Luczak, Christophe, Ibanez, Frederic
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Sir AlisterHardyFoundationforOceanScience, TheLaboratory,CitadelHill,PlymouthPL12PB,UK, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Partenaires INRAE, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2008
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; atlantic cod; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03494336; https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01218.x

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.