Future intensification of extreme Aleutian low events and their climate impacts

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: Giamalaki, K., Beaulieu, C., Henson, S., Martin, A., Kassem, H., Faranda, Davide
• Other Authors: Ocean Sciences Department, University of California USA, University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC), University of California-University of California, Ocean and Earth Science Southampton, University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC), University of Southampton, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Pacific; aleutian low
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03345492; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03345492/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03345492/file/s41598-021-97615-7.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97615-7

International audience Extreme Aleutian Low (AL) events have been associated with major ecosystem reorganisations and unusual weather patterns in the Pacific region, with serious socio-economic consequences. Yet, their future evolution and impacts on atmosphere–ocean interactions remain uncertain. Here, a large ensemble of historical and future runs from the Community Earth System Model is used to investigate the evolution of AL extremes. The frequency and persistence of AL extremes are quantified and their connection with climatic variables is examined. AL extremes become more frequent and persistent under the RCP8.5 scenario, associated with changes in precipitation and air temperature patterns over North America. Future changes in AL extremes also increase the variability of the sea surface temperature and net heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, the most significant heat and energy flux region of the basin. The increased frequency and persistence of future AL extremes may potentially cause substantial changes in fisheries and ecosystems of the entire Pacific region as a knock-on effect.