Multispecies integrated population model reveals bottom‐up dynamics in a seabird predator–prey system

• Published in: Ecological Monographs
• Main Authors: Quéroué, Maud, Barbraud, Christophe, Barraquand, Frédéric, Turek, Daniel, Delord, Karine, Pacoureau, Nathan, Gimenez, Olivier
• Other Authors: Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Victor Segalen Bordeaux 2 University, Mathematics Institute of Bordeaux, Bordeaux France, Department of Mathematics & Statistics Williamstown, Williams College Williamstown, Earth to Ocean Research Group (SFU), Simon Fraser University (SFU.ca)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: Bayesian inference; Demography; Environmental variations; Integrated Population Model; Matrix population model; Nimble; Predator–Prey interactions; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; Kerguelen; Kerguelen Islands; Southern Ocean; Brown Skua
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03246282; https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1459

International audience Assessing the effects of climate and interspecific relationships on communities is challenging because of the complex interplay between species population dynamics, their interactions, and the need to integrate information across several biological levels (individuals – populations – communities). Usually used to quantify single‐species demography, integrated population models (IPMs) have recently been extended to communities. These models allow fitting multispecies matrix models to data from multiple sources while simultaneously accounting for uncertainty in each data source. We used multispecies IPMs accommodating climatic variables to quantify the relative contribution of climate vs. interspecific interactions on demographic parameters, such as survival and breeding success, in the dynamics of a predator–prey system. We considered a stage‐structured predator–prey system combining 22 years of capture–recapture data and population counts of two seabirds, the Brown Skua (Catharacta lönnbergi) and its main prey the Blue Petrel (Halobaena caerulea), both breeding on the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Ocean. Our results showed that climate and predator–prey interactions drive the demography of skuas and petrels in different ways. The breeding success of skuas appeared to be largely driven by the number of petrels and to a lesser extent by intraspecific density‐dependence. In contrast, there was no evidence of predation effects on the demographic parameters of petrels, which were affected by oceanographic factors. We conclude that bottom‐up mechanisms are the main drivers of this skua–petrel system.