A nonstationary analysis for investigating the multiscale variability of extreme surges: case of the English Channel coasts

• Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• Main Authors: Turki, Imen, Baulon, Lisa, Massei, Nicolas, Laignel, Benoît, Costa, Stéphane, Fournier, Matthieu, Maquaire, Olivier
• Other Authors: Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03041414; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03041414/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03041414/file/nhess-20-3225-2020.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3225-2020

International audience This research examines the nonstationary dynamics of extreme surges along the English Channel coasts and seeks to make their connection to the climate patterns at different timescales by the use of a detailed spectral analysis in order to gain insights into the physical mechanisms relating the global atmospheric circulation to the local-scale variability of the monthly extreme surges. This variability highlights different oscillatory components from the interannual (∼1.5, ∼2–4, ∼5–8 years) to the interdecadal (∼12–16 years) scales with mean explained variances of ∼25 %–32 % and ∼2 %–4 % of the total variability, respectively. Using the two hypotheses that the physical mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation change according to the timescales and their connection with the local variability improves the prediction of the extremes, we have demonstrated statistically significant relationships of ∼1.5, ∼2–4, ∼5–8 and 12–16 years with the different climate oscillations of sea level pressure, zonal wind, North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, respectively.Such physical links have been used to implement the parameters of the time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution models. The introduced climate information in the GEV parameters has considerably improved the prediction of the different timescales of surges with an explained variance higher than 60 %. This improvement exhibits their non-linear relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulation.