Contributions of atmospheric forcing and chaotic ocean variability to regional sea level trends over 1993‐2015

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Llovel, W., Penduff, Thierry, Meyssignac, Benoit, Molines, Jean‐Marc, Terray, Laurent, Bessières, Laurent, Barnier, Bernard
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), CERFACS
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2018
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; Southern Ocean; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02003015; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02003015/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02003015/file/llovel2018.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080838

International audience A global ¼° ocean/sea-ice 50-member ensemble simulation is analyzed to disentangle the imprints of the atmospheric forcing and the chaotic ocean variability on regional sea level trends over the satellite altimetry period. We find that the chaotic ocean variability may mask atmospherically forced regional sea level trends over 38% of the global ocean area from 1993 to 2015, and over 47% of this area from 2005 to 2015. These regions are located in the western boundary currents, in the Southern Ocean and in the subtropical gyres. While these results do not question the anthropogenic origin of global mean sea level rise, they give new insights into the intrinsically oceanic versus atmospheric forcing of regional sea level trends and provide new constraints on the measurement time required to attribute regional sea level trends to the atmospheric forcing or to climate change.