Current status of intraseasonal-seasonal-to-interannual prediction of the Indo-Pacific climate

• Main Authors: Luo, Jing-Jia, YUAN, CHAOXIA, SASAKI, WATARU, Behera, Swadhin K., Masumoto, Yukio, Yamagata, Toshio, LEE, JUNE-YI, Masson, Sébastien
• Other Authors: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai‘i Mānoa (UHM)-University of Hawai‘i Mānoa (UHM), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swadhin Kumar Behera (JAMSTEC, Japan), Toshio Yamagata (JAMSTEC, Japan)
• Format: Book Part
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Indian; Pacific; South Atlantic Ocean
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01632881; https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814696623_0003

International audience Prediction skill regarding the Indo-Pacific climate has been rapidly enhanced in the past decade. While early prediction efforts were made based on statistical methods and/or simple climate models, recent climate predictions have been performed using comprehensive ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs). Both model performance of climate simulation and the data assimilation scheme have been improved to produce better prediction skill. Multimodel prediction results have been collected to gain higher skill, which is usually superior to that of the individual model. Most of the OAGCMs can now skillfully predict the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) at lead times of up to 1–2 seasons, and ENSO up to 6–9 months. Distinct SST patterns associated with different El Ni˜no flavors can also be well predicted at short-to-medium lead times. Furthermore, global climate anomalies induced by ENSO and IOD are realistically predicted. The subtropical dipole modes in the South Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean (IO), the southern African climate, Asian monsoon precipitation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies are predictable at short-to-medium lead times. Encouragingly, the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F model produces a useful skill of ENSO prediction at lead times of up to two years. And some strong IOD events can be well predicted up to one year ahead even if El Ni˜no's influence is suppressed. The results also suggest the importance of the IO–Pacific interbasin coupling and the recent global warming trend to climate predictability. For MJO prediction, the multimodel ensemble based on 12 OAGCMs achieves a useful skill (>0.5) of up to 26–28 days in advance.