The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Jones, A., Haywood, J.M., Alterskjær, K., Boucher, Olivier, Cole, J.N.S., Curry, C.L., Irvine, P.J., Ji, D., Kravitz, B., Egill Kristjánsson, J., Moore, J.C., Niemeier, U., Robock, A., Schmidt, H., Singh, B., Tilmes, S., Watanabe, S., Yoon, J.-H.
• Other Authors: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS), University of Exeter, Department of Geosciences Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Oslo, University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam (IASS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University (BNU), Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey New Brunswick (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2013
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology; Antarctic; Arctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01105166; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01105166/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01105166/file/jonesG2jgrd50762.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50762

International audience We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes. Key Points Impacts of the abrupt termination of geoengineering are compared in 11 GCMsThe models agree on very rapid global-mean warming following terminationLevels of agreement vary on the geographic patterns of climatic change ©2013 Crown copyright. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. ©2013 American Geophysical Union. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.