Climate impact of stratospheric ozone recovery
International audience Past stratospheric ozone depletion has acted to cool the Earth's surface. As the result of the phase-out of anthropogenic halogenated compounds emissions, stratospheric ozone is projected to recover and its radiative forcing (RF-O 3 ~ -0.05 W/m 2 presently) might therefor...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2013
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00802252 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00802252/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00802252/file/Bekki_et_al-2013-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50358 |
Summary: | International audience Past stratospheric ozone depletion has acted to cool the Earth's surface. As the result of the phase-out of anthropogenic halogenated compounds emissions, stratospheric ozone is projected to recover and its radiative forcing (RF-O 3 ~ -0.05 W/m 2 presently) might therefore be expected to decay in line with ozone recovery itself. Using results from chemistry-climate models, we find that, although model projections using a standard greenhouse gas scenario broadly agree on the future evolution of global ozone, they strongly disagree on RF-O 3 because of a large model spread in ozone changes in a narrow (several km thick) layer, in the northern lowermost stratosphere. Clearly, future changes in global stratospheric ozone cannot be considered an indicator of its overall RF. The multi-model mean RF-O 3 estimate for 2100 is +0.06 W/m 2 but with a range such that it could remain negative throughout this century or change sign and reach up to ~0.25 W/m 2 . |
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