Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space -...
Main Authors: | , |
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Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
1994
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301718 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301718/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00301718/file/npg-1-41-1994.pdf |
Summary: | International audience A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation. |
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