| Summary: | The art and science of geopolitics was developed to explain history and international relations by identifying and incorporating the role of geography and climate in the complex adaptive organic system that is human civilization. The application of the geopolitical framework of analysis in East Asian history confirmed the role of geography and climate in influencing human decisions in East Asian history. This study identified several broad geopolitical trends for the region of East Asia by studying the history of the region, incorporating the continuous effects of geography and climate. Focusing not at the national level but at the sub-regional level, the following trends are identified: East Asia is a collection of 17 distinct sub-regions, each with a distinct identity, language and tradition that are centrifugal in their total effect within the sub-region. The challenge for China is to keep its 13 sub-regions together as a single nation despite the increasing crisis of deepening disparity in wealth, chronic water, and energy shortages. The climate trends indicate a worsening of the water shortage problem for all of China, as well as Southeast Asia and South Asia, resulting in a sub-regional migration problem that will push all nations of Asia to their limit in the next 100 years. Global warming will bring East Siberia into the forefront of global competition, with the Arctic Ocean assuming the role of a new global stage of international competition. Facing a resurgent Russia and a reinvigorated North America, East Asia will enter a period of playing a peripheral role in international politics brought on by the systemic failures brought on by climate change and shaped by geography.
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