| Summary: | An uncoupled, modified Hibler ice model has been applied to the Gulf of St. Lawrence for three different winters of varying severity, in order to examine interannual sea ice variability. The simulation was initialized with observed November sea surface temperatures, and forced by weekly geostrophic winds, monthly averaged meteorological data and model geostrophic surface currents. Results showed a general correlation with observations, reproducing differences in the sea ice cover between the years chosen. Neglecting oceanic effects caused excessive ice formation in the northwest Gulf and produced discrepancies between the observed and modelled ice edge. Sensitivity studies revealed a high sensitivity to variations in both the forcing fields and the model free parameters. Further modelling studies must include a coupled ocean component, and force the ice component with weekly meteorological data to improve the accuracy of the prediction.
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