| Summary: | The importance of spatial variation in abundance for the assessment of climate change impacts was examined using the North American beaver ( Castor canadensis) in Quebec as a model species. A preliminary characterization of the beavers' range edge improved the core-sampling bias and revealed that beavers are present at low densities, in shrubby riparian habitats as far north as the communities of Tasiujaq and Umiujaq. Spatial variation in beaver abundance across the province follows a roughly logistic pattern, with abundance peaking in southern Quebec, declining steeply around 49°N, and remaining uniformly low as far as 58°N. Although climate sensitivity of beaver abundance and the greatest changes in future beaver density are predicted to occur near the middle of their range, beavers are expected to occupy most of the province by 2055. These results highlight the value of incorporating density estimates from across a species' range into climate envelope models.
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