| Summary: | Surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink-to-source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season. © 2024. The Author(s). This is an open access article under theterms of the Creative Commons Attributionâ€NonCommercialâ€NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided theoriginal work is properly cited, the use is nonâ€commercial and no modifications oradaptations are made. The research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). The authors acknowledge support from the JPL SRTD Program. © 2024. All rights reserved. Model results used in this analysis are openly available (Parazoo & Byrne,2024). Supporting information S1
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