| Summary: | Abstract A modelling framework for changing Arctic sea ice extent is developed reflecting different trends and seasonal extremes in nine Arctic sub-regions. Core sub-regions retain partial ice cover throughout the year, and in winter show complete ice cover, while in peripheral sub-regions, winter coverage is not complete, and there is no ice cover at all in the summer. A generalized beta representation is developed for monthly ice extents in core sub-regions, with inflation to model maximum winter extents. For peripheral sub-regions, a gamma time series with excess zeroes (representing summer sea ice absence) is developed. Different trend representations (deterministic vs. stochastic) are compared for non-extreme observations. Other potential applications of the generalized beta density allowing zero or maximum inflation are discussed.
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