Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models
Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265 |
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ftawi:oai:epic.awi.de:57836 2024-09-15T17:51:23+00:00 Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models Pan, Rongrong Shu, Qi Wang, Qiang Wang, Shizhu Song, Zhenya He, Yan Qiao, Fangli 2023-02-15 application/pdf https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265 unknown American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf Pan, R. , Shu, Q. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Wang, S. , Song, Z. , He, Y. and Qiao, F. (2023) Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models , Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (4) . doi:10.1029/2022gl102077 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102077> , hdl:10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265 EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 50(4), ISSN: 0094-8276 Article isiRev 2023 ftawi https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102077 2024-06-24T04:30:12Z Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) Geophysical Research Letters 50 4 |
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Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI): ePIC (electronic Publication Information Center) |
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ftawi |
language |
unknown |
description |
Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pan, Rongrong Shu, Qi Wang, Qiang Wang, Shizhu Song, Zhenya He, Yan Qiao, Fangli |
spellingShingle |
Pan, Rongrong Shu, Qi Wang, Qiang Wang, Shizhu Song, Zhenya He, Yan Qiao, Fangli Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
author_facet |
Pan, Rongrong Shu, Qi Wang, Qiang Wang, Shizhu Song, Zhenya He, Yan Qiao, Fangli |
author_sort |
Pan, Rongrong |
title |
Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
title_short |
Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
title_full |
Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
title_fullStr |
Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models |
title_sort |
future arctic climate change in cmip6 strikingly intensified by nemo‐family climate models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/ https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 50(4), ISSN: 0094-8276 |
op_relation |
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf Pan, R. , Shu, Q. , Wang, Q. orcid:0000-0002-2704-5394 , Wang, S. , Song, Z. , He, Y. and Qiao, F. (2023) Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models , Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (4) . doi:10.1029/2022gl102077 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102077> , hdl:10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl102077 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1810293258363863040 |