Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Pan, Rongrong, Shu, Qi, Wang, Qiang, Wang, Shizhu, Song, Zhenya, He, Yan, Qiao, Fangli
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2023
Subjects:
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Climate change
Sea ice
Online Access:https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/
https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/57836/1/Pan_NEMO_2023.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.f74322db-78c8-4e24-b9f3-14641c430265
Description
Summary:Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air-sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.

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