Permafrost vulnerability – an EO-based assessment from multiple ESA CCI essential climate variables
Permafrost is a key indicator of global climate change and hence considered an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Current studies show a warming trend of permafrost globally, which induces widespread permafrost thaw, leading to near-surface permafrost loss at local to regional scales and impacting ec...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56631/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.b10f7df5-299c-4e6b-ae5b-ac15349df42e |
| Summary: | Permafrost is a key indicator of global climate change and hence considered an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Current studies show a warming trend of permafrost globally, which induces widespread permafrost thaw, leading to near-surface permafrost loss at local to regional scales and impacting ecosystems, hydrological systems, greenhouse gas emissions, and infrastructure stability. Especially the understanding of abrupt, rapid permafrost thaw dynamics, unfolding within merely a couple of days to years and impacting the landscape irreversibly, such as thermokarst formation, lake drainage, and retrogressive thaw slumps, are of high relevance as their projected greenhouse gas emissions, including methane and carbon dioxide, are substantial. Permafrost is defined as the thermal state of the subsurface but is greatly influenced by changes in the surface state, which is tightly connected to the atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and cryosphere by topography, water, snow and vegetation. Hence, examining changes in the surface state will help to identify regions that are particular vulnerable to permafrost thaw. Our primary aim is to investigate changes in the surface state by assessing positive and negative feedbacks to the surface state that potentially influence permafrost and thus derive an index for permafrost vulnerability to thaw. Earth observation (EO) based datasets provide great opportunity to analyse relevant variables impacting the surface state and obtain trends and changes from long-term consistent datasets. Relevant variables for assessment are land surface temperature, land cover, snow cover, fire, albedo, soil moisture, and information on the freeze/thaw state, which are all ECVs as well, and are available globally following ESA CCI and GCOS product developments. Furthermore, two modelled permafrost_cci products are available for comparison: ground temperature and active layer thickness. However, so far, a combined assessment of these products to better understand, quantify, and project permafrost ... |
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