Permafrost vulnerability – deriving a vulnerability index from ESA CCI EOdataset
Permafrost is a key indicator of global climate change and hence considered an Essential Climate Variable. Current studies show a warming trend of permafrost globally, which induces widespread permafrost thaw, leading to near-surface permafrost loss at local to regional scales and impacting ecosyste...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/56629/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.81b40e20-e0da-4274-9f0b-311af624bf75 |
| Summary: | Permafrost is a key indicator of global climate change and hence considered an Essential Climate Variable. Current studies show a warming trend of permafrost globally, which induces widespread permafrost thaw, leading to near-surface permafrost loss at local to regional scales and impacting ecosystems, hydrological systems, greenhouse gas emissions, and infrastructure stability. Permafrost thaw can unfold slowly from gradual top-down thawing and deepening of the active layer but also rapidly from abrupt thawing of ice-rich permafrost, involving processes such as thermokarst formation, lake drainage, retrogressive thaw slumps and coastal erosion. Many of these processes impact landscapes irreversibly, while posing a particular threat to infrastructure and livelihoods of people in the Arctic. Permafrost is defined as the thermal state of the subsurface, hence Earth Observation methods have limitations in assessing permafrost directly. However, the state of the subsurface is strongly connected to surface conditions and influenced by changes in the atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and cryosphere. Therefore, examining changes in the surface state will help identify local to regional trends and impacts on the thermal state of permafrost. Hence, the aim of this study in progress is to investigate changes in the surface state by assessing potential positive and negative trends in variables impacting permafrost and thus identifying areas that are vulnerable to permafrost thaw by developing a permafrost vulnerability framework using a comparative index. EO-based datasets provide relevant variables impacting the surface state and obtain trends and changes from homogenised long-term datasets. These globally available datasets include land surface temperature, land cover, snow cover, fire, albedo, soil moisture, and information on the freeze/thaw state, which are ECVs too. Furthermore, a modelled permafrost_cci product is available from the ESA CCI+ Permafrost project, which reveals changes and trends in ground temperature ... |
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