Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends
Typically 20–40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979–2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent w...
| Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/46450/ https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7def https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.fb4e6c78-428b-463a-8387-94688d6d312f |
| Summary: | Typically 20–40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979–2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3–4 events/decade in November–December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blocking-like’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January–February). |
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