Early detection of THC weakening: GCM and conceptual model simulations
Climate models show the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Strong THC fluctuations on interannual to interdecadal timescales and high erros in THC measurements hinder the detection of a possible THC slowdown.Our analysis s...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
2005
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/12711/ https://hdl.handle.net/10013/epic.23124 |
| Summary: | Climate models show the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Strong THC fluctuations on interannual to interdecadal timescales and high erros in THC measurements hinder the detection of a possible THC slowdown.Our analysis shows that the temperature structure in the Atlantic Ocean can be a sensitive indicator identifying early THC weakening with a high signal-to-noise ratio. Simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM emphasize the subsurface temperature signature in the Atlantic Ocean with its potential to trace THC changes. A part of this signature can be understood with the advective-diffusive balance which is confirmed in a stochastic low-order model of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Finally, instrumental and proxy data are used to estimate THC fluctuations on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. |
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