Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present
Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-e...
Published in: | Annual Review of Marine Science |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Annual Reviews Inc
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/219351 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242 https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/219351/3/01_Rohling_Comparing_climate_sensitivity%252C_2018.pdf.jpg https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/219351/6/ROHLING%20et%20al%20Ann%20Rev%20Mar%20Sci-2017.pdf.jpg |
Summary: | Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change. E.J.R. and G.M. acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council via Australian Laureate Fellowship FL120100050. A.S.v.d.H. acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre, financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, and Science. P.K. is funded by Polar Regions and Coasts in the Changing Earth System II (PACES II), the Helmholtz research program to which the Alfred Wegener Institute contributes. |
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