Oysters as sentinels of climate variability and climate change in coastal ecosystems

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Thomas, Yoann, Cassou, Christophe, Gernez, Pierre, Pouvreau, Stéphane
• Other Authors: Mer, molécules et santé EA 2160 (MMS), Le Mans Université (UM)-Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques (UN UFR ST), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin (LEMAR) (LEMAR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), ANR-12-AGRO-0001,GIGASSAT,Adaptation des écosystèmes ostréicoles au changement global(2012)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2018
• Subjects: North Atlantic; weather regime; oyster; monitoring network; mortality risk assessment; climate models; RCP scenarios; ACL; [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment/Bioclimatology; [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02530675; https://hal.science/hal-02530675/document; https://hal.science/hal-02530675/file/Thomas_etal_ERL_2018.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae254

International audience Beyond key ecological services, marine resources are crucial for human food security and socio-economical sustainability. Among them, shellfish aquaculture and fishing are of primary importance but become more vulnerable under anthropogenic pressure, as evidenced by reported mass mortality events linked to global changes such as ocean warming and acidification, chemical contamination, and diseases. Understanding climate-related risks is a vital objective for conservation strategies, ecosystems management and human health. We provide here a comprehensive study of the historical mortality of adult oysters related to observed climate variability along the French Atlantic coast from 1986 to 2015, and we built on this knowledge to develop hindcast and forecast assessments of the oyster mortality risk from 1900 to 2100. We show that mortality events usually occur several months after winters dominated by the occurrence of positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO+) atmospheric regimes of circulation. We explain the lagged response by the multiseasonal long-lasting imprint of wintertime NAO+ on biological and environmental factors, which partly structure oyster mortality etiology. Very high wintertime seawater temperature anomalies at the interannual timescale, which were mostly attributable to internal climate variability through NAO+ and which led to pronounced mortality over the observed period, are then treated as 'analogs' in a large ensemble of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and models in order to anticipate future risks. Without any adaptive process, we provide evidence that actual exceptional mortality is likely to become the norm by similar to 2035, even if global warming is limited to +2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels.