| Summary: | PROJECT RESULTS: Describe the results of your research in reference to its original and/or modified Project objectives. The maximum extension of this section is 5 pages (Arial or Verdana font, size 10). General goal: To evaluate the relative contribution of physical environmental and socio-political factors in the demise of pre-Columbian agrarian societies that have inhabited the Americas over the last 2,000 years. Specific goals SG1: To reconstruct a detailed history of pre-Hispanic collapses in the Americas over the past two millennia through the recompilation and analysis of paleo-demographic data. One of us, (Eugenia M. Gayo) has recently published a paper that offers a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 archeological radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, Bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies (Bird et al. 2022, paper uploaded as a product of the present project). SG2: To delineate a comparative analysis of population dynamics for detecting converges and divergences in the collapsing process among pre-Hispanic agrarian societies that differ either in socio-political complexity or environmental settings. We have focused on different pre-hispanic agrarian societies in our continent, in particular, the Rapa Nui society, the Moche, Tiwanaku and Wari societies in the central Andes and northern coast of Perú and the Maya society in Mesoamerica. In the case of Rapa Nui society, we tested different hypotheses by developing explicit population dynamic models that integrate feedbacks between climatic, demographic and ecological factors that underpinned the sociocultural trajectory of these people. We evaluate our model outputs against a ...
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