| Summary: | Maintenance and Update Frequency: asNeeded Statement: Statement: The Resilience model was built as a sceanrio generation tool. As such, future predictions are based on realisations that are inherently uncertain, and little confidence can be attributed the likellihood of specific (individual) scenarios. Rather, the relatively in the response characteristics between the different scenarios may be useful in identifuing those factors (manageable or otherwise) that may contribute to the future trajectories of coral reefscapes on the GBR. \n \nThe deleterious future impact of Ocean Acidification is not currently considered in this model. \n Credit Wooldridge, Scott A, Dr (Principal Investigator) This simulation model allows various scenarios to be run which test how different percentages of nutrient reductions (and the parallel improvement in inshore reef quality) might operate in conjunction with raised water temperatures (as a result of climate change). \n \n The model has been used for the following simulations: \n The beneficial impact of end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients reductions (10%, 30%, 50% and 70%) in raising the bleaching resistance (i.e. the UTBT, °C) of inshore reefs between Townsville and Cooktown. \n The impact of 10%, 30%, 50% and 70% reductions in end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients for the Burdekin, Herbert, Tully, Johnstone, Russell, Barron, Daintree, Endeavour, Jeannie and Normanby river systems. \n Two scenarios for the Tully River Basin - an 18% reduction in fertiliser N application, and a 35% reduction.\n To develop a tool that enables greater characterization of risks posed to the linked GBR social-ecological system due to the effects of climate change.\n The model interfaces source code written in C++ with ArcGIS webmaps. \n \n Details pertaining to the rationale, development and application of the individual submodels and integrating framework can be found within the refereed journal articles.\n
|
|---|