| Summary: | Maintenance and Update Frequency: notPlanned Statement: The study encompassed a total of 56 species of seabirds and pinnipeds, spanning across 10 taxonomic families, breeding in diverse habitats across the Indo-Pacific region of the Southern Hemisphere. These habitats include temperate islands in Bass Strait and Southeast Australia, Subantarctic Macquarie Island, and the Antarctic continent. The selection of this study area was deliberate, aiming to include a variety of habitats that host a range of marine predator taxa while maintaining a manageable taxa list for in-depth analysis. In our assessment, we employed the latest risk assessment framework outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This contemporary framework acknowledges that risks associated with climate change arise from the interaction between climatic hazards and the exposure and vulnerability of the targeted taxa or ecosystem. To evaluate the climate change risk, we established 15 vulnerability criteria, four exposure criteria and six hazard criteria through a comprehensive review of the literature. Information on vulnerability and exposure criteria was sourced from online databases (the IUCN red list, Birds of the World, AnAge, Avibase, Encyclopedia of Life and Animal Diversity Web), while hazard data was gathered through a combination of a systematic literature review and expert elicitation. To quantify the significance of each risk component in this study, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted using the R package 'tgp'. Globally, terrestrially-breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to assess likely climate ...
|
|---|