| Summary: | Progress Code: completed Statement: This dataset represents modeled outputs and therefore problems with data collection do not apply directly. However, the OISST v2, SeaWiFS and Johnson et al. (2013) datasets, which were used for assessing model skill, are based off measurements (of SST or ocean colour, respectively) and analyses that have their own errors associated (see the respective datasets for more information). Purpose Antarctic krill are an ecologically and commercially important species in the Southern Ocean, and are also likely vulnerable to climate change. Initial habitat quality projections indicate that krill are vulnerable to warming sea surface temperatures (SST). However, krill are also highly sensitive to changes in food availability (mainly phytoplankton, approximated by satellite chlorophyll-a observations), which has yet to be included in habitat quality projections. These data represent the results of the first study to use Earth System Model (ESM) outputs of SST and chlorophyll-a to simulate circumpolar krill growth potential for the recent past (1960-1989) and future climate change scenarios (2070-2099). Growth potential is obtained using an empirically-derived krill growth model (Atkinson et al. 2006, Limnol. Oceanogr.), where growth is modeled as a function of SST and chlorophyll-a. It serves as an approximation of habitat quality, as areas that support high growth rates are assumed to be good habitat (see Murphy et al., 2017, Sci Rep). To increase confidence in the future projections, ESMs were selected and weighted for each season based on their skill at reproducing observation-based krill growth potential for the recent past. First, eleven ESMs which provided SST and chlorophyll-a outputs were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 archive. These included: CanESM2, CMCC-CESM, CNRM-CM5, GFL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-CC, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-ESM1 and NorESM1-ME. For each ESM, seasonal surface averages of SST and chlorophyll-a were used ...
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