Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks-Diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

• Published in: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Main Authors: Barton, David N., Sundt, Håkon, Adeva Bustos, Ana, Fjeldstad, Hans-Petter, Hedger, Richard, Forseth, Torbjørn, köhler, Berit, Aas, Øystein, Alfredsen, Knut, Madsen, Anders Læsø
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Angling; Atlantic salmon; Bayesian network (BN); Disproportionate cost; Good ecological potential; Multi-attribute valuation theory (MAVT); River aesthetics; Valuation; Water framework directive (WFD)
• Online Access: https://vbn.aau.dk/da/publications/b4645e4e-7786-4dd8-8389-30cf34a06cff; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104604; https://vbn.aau.dk/ws/files/320712156/1_s2.0_S136481521831291X_main.pdf

The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenges of providing decision-support to a real-world habitat remediation process.