A probabilistic method for long-term estimation of ice loads on ship hull

Funding Information: This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation, a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk. Publisher Copyright:...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Structural Safety
Main Authors: Li, Fang, Suominen, Mikko, Lu, Liangliang, Kujala, Pentti, Taylor, Rocky
Other Authors: Marine Technology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aalto-yliopisto, Aalto University
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2021
Subjects:
Event Maximum Method
Full-scale measurement
Ice load
Ice-going ships
Long-term estimation
Probabilistic method
Antarctic
Antarc*
Online Access:https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/108851
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102130
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Summary:Funding Information: This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation, a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s) Ships navigating in ice-infested regions need strengthened hull to resist the loads arising from the interactions with ice. Correct estimation of the maximum ice loads a ship may encounter during its lifetime is of vital importance for the design of ship structures. Due to the stochastic nature of ice properties and interaction processes, probabilistic approaches are useful to make long-term estimations of local ice loads on the hull. The Event Maximum Method (EMM) is an existing probabilistic approach for the long-term estimation of ice loads on the hull. This paper aims to extend the current EMM, first by introducing a model for the intercept of the linear regression line on the abscissa in order to quantify this value. Moreover, ice concentration is considered in the extended method as the second ice condition parameter in addition to thickness. The proposed method is applied to the full-scale measurement of the ship S.A. Agulhas II using the data obtained from the 2018/19 Antarctic voyage. The obtained model is then validated against six-year measurement data from 2013 to 2019, which shows reasonable similarity. Peer reviewed

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