| Summary: | Previous studies generally report that hatchery-origin Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have lower relative reproductive success (RRS) than their natural-origin counterparts. We estimated the RRS of Pink Salmon (O. gorbuscha) in Prince William Sound, Alaska (PWS) using incomplete pedigrees. In contrast to other RRS studies, Pink Salmon have a short freshwater life history, freshwater habitats in PWS are largely unaltered by development, and sampling was conducted without the aid of dams or weirs resulting in incomplete sampling of spawning individuals. Pink Salmon released from large-scale hatchery programs in PWS have interacted with wild populations for more than 15 generations. Hatchery populations were established from PWS populations but have subsequently been managed as separate broodstocks. Gene flow is primarily directional, from hatchery strays to wild populations. We used genetic-based parentage analysis to estimate the RRS of a single generation of stray hatchery-origin Pink Salmon in two streams, and across the odd- and even-year lineages. Despite incomplete sampling, we assigned 1,745 offspring to at least one parent. Reproductive success (RS), measured as sampled adult offspring that returned to their natal stream, was significantly lower for hatchery- versus natural-origin parents in both lineages, with RRS ranging from 0.03 to 0.47 for females and 0.05 to 0.86 for males. Generalized linear modeling for the even-year lineage indicated that RRS was lower for hatchery-origin fish, ranging from 0.42 to 0.60, after accounting for sample date (run timing), sample location within the stream, and fish length. Our results strongly suggest that hatchery-origin strays have lower fitness in the wild. The consequences of reduced RRS on wild productivity depend on whether the mechanisms underlying reduced RRS are environmentally driven, and likely ephemeral, or genetically driven, and likely persistent across generations.
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