| Summary: | The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed research attention. Here we show through viability testing under simulated field-based soil surface conditions, that sixteen species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated under current Antarctic summer conditions and thrived under warming conditions. Soil surface degree day sum requirements for germination of those sixteen species are present as far south as 72° S. Our experimental approach shows that, both in terms of the number of species and of geographical range, the establishment potential of non-native species is far greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches with important implications for risk assessment of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula.
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