| Summary: | These data provide projected 30-yr normals (i.e., averages) for two climate variables, three different 21st-century time periods, and five global climate models (GCMs): Climate variables: Mean temperature of the warmest month (TWARM, °C) Total annual moisture availability (P-PETANN, mm). P = precipitation, PET = potential-evapotranspiration Time periods: 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 GCMs: CCSM4 GFDL-CM3 GISS-E2-R IPSL-CM5A-LR MRI-CGCM3 The purpose of these climatological maps is to inform and drive the statistical models from Young et al. (2017), providing spatially explicit 21st-century projections of the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence across Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems. The statistical models and the future fire-probability projections are provided in the “Generalized Boosted Models and Analysis Scripts” and “Future fire projections for 2010-2099, Alaska” nested datasets within this archive, respectively. All GCM projections are under the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. All climate data was obtained from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (2015). Full details are available in Young et al. (2017). File naming convention: Example: "GFDL-CM3_rcp60_AnnDEF_2040_2069.tif" "GFDL-CM3" = GCM Name "rcp60" = Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) "AnnDEF" = Climate variable. AnnDEF = Mean total P-PET (mm); TempWarm = Mean temperature of the warmest month (°C) “2040_2069” = Beginning (e.g., 2040) and ending (e.g., 2069) years for 30-yr climatology Citations: Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska. 2015. Projected Monthly Temperature and Precipitation - 2 km CMIP5/AR5. Retrieved January 2015 from https://www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads . Young, A.M., P. E. Higuera, P. A. Duffy, and F. S. Hu. 2017. Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change. Ecography 40:606-617. doi: 10.1111/ecog.02205.
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