| Summary: | The Arctic, including Alaska, is currently experiencing an unprecedented degree of environmental change with increases in both the mean annual surface temperature and precipitation. These observed changes in the climate regime has resulted in a permafrost condition that is particularly sensitive to changes in both Changes in the surface energy balance and water balances and is susceptible to degradation. Thermokarst topography forms whenever ice-rich permafrost thaws and the ground subsides into the resulting voids. Extensive areas of thermokarst activity are currently being observed throughout the arctic and sub-arctic environments. The important processes involved with thermokarsting include surface ponding, surface subsidence, changes in drainage patterns, and related erosion. In this research, we are applying the land-surface evolution model, ERODE (http://csdms.colorado.edu/wiki/Model:Erode), to an area dominated by lowcenter, ice-wedge polygons. We are modifying the ERODE model to include land surface subsistence in areas where the maximum active layer depth exceeds the protective layer – the layer of soil above ice-rich soils that acts as a buffer to surface energy processes. The goal of this modeling study is to better understand and quantify the development of thermokarst features in the polygonal tundra environment, emphasizing the resulting feedbacks and connections between hydrologic processes and a dynamic surface topography. Further, we are working on understanding the balance between thermal and mechanical processes with regard to thermokarst processes. This unique application of a landscape evolution model may provide valuable insight related to the rates and spatial extent of thermokarst development and the subsequent hydrologic responses to degrading permafrost in a changing climate.
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