Simulation of temperature extremes over West Africa and the Eastern Sahel with MPAS
A large ensemble of 51 simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) has been applied to assess its ability to reproduce extreme temperatures and heat waves in the area of West Africa and the Eastern Sahel. With its global approach the model avoids transition errors influencing the...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Other/Unknown Material |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
Authorea, Inc.
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.22541/essoar.168167156.68480742/v1 |
| Summary: | A large ensemble of 51 simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) has been applied to assess its ability to reproduce extreme temperatures and heat waves in the area of West Africa and the Eastern Sahel. With its global approach the model avoids transition errors influencing the performance of limited area climate models. The MPAS simulations were driven with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent as the only boundary condition. The results reveal moderate cold biases in the range from -0.6° to -0.9° C for the daily mean temperature and -1.4° to -2.0° C for the area mean of the daily maximum temperature. The bias in the number of tropical nights ranges from +3 to -10 days. An underestimation by up to 50% is also present regarding the number of summer days. The heat wave duration index is underestimated regionally by 10% to 60%. Compared to the reanalyses, the biases revealed by the MPAS simulations are generally smaller than with measured observational reference. The results from long term runs and from short term runs with selected SST years are similar. Shortcomings in the reproduction of the temperature and precipitation indices found in the present investigation indicate that the global MPAS approach does provide a fidelity similar to that of the regional climate models. |
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