Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Florko, Katie R. N., Tai, Travis C., Cheung, William W. L., Ferguson, Steven H., Sumaila, U. Rashid, Yurkowski, David J., Auger‐Méthé, Marie
• Other Authors: Bruyn, Nico de, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2021
• Subjects: Arctic; Hudson; Hudson Bay; Arctic cod; Boreogadus saida; Climate change; Pusa hispida; ringed seal; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13866; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.13866; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/ele.13866

Abstract Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate‐driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida ) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high‐ and low‐greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low‐emission scenario, but under the high‐emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well‐distributed, ice‐adapted and energy‐rich Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate‐associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy‐rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.