The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al. (2002)

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Lonergan, Mike, Harwood, John
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2003
• Subjects: Harding; harbour seal; Phoca vitulina
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1461-0248.2003.00510.x; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x

Abstract In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long‐term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.