The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al. (2002)
Abstract In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a rela...
| Published in: | Ecology Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2003
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1046%2Fj.1461-0248.2003.00510.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x |
| Summary: | Abstract In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long‐term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions. |
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