Three‐dimensional chemical model simulations of the ozone layer: 2015–55

• Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Main Authors: Austin, John, Butchart, Neal, Knight, Jeffrey
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2001
• Subjects: Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712757313; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.49712757313; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.49712757313

Abstract A stratospheric‐chemistry model coupled to a general‐circulation model is used to investigate chemistry‐climate coupling processes and their influence on ozone. Simulations commence on 1 March in each of the years 2014, 2024, 2034, 2044 and 2054, and consist of a 4‐month spin‐up period, followed by a 1‐year integration. Projected values of halogen amounts and greenhouse gases are imposed on the model. During the period 2014–54, ozone generally increases but by 2054 has still not returned to 1980 conditions. In Antarctica, spring ozone recovers temporarily in the 2024 integration but the ozone hole deepens significantly again in the 2034 and 2044 integrations before finally disappearing in the 2054 integration. The results suggest that the deepening of the Antarctic ozone hole in the model in 2034 and 2044, despite a reduction in halogen loading, is due to enhanced cooling due to increased greenhouse gases. Model‐predicted temperature and ultraviolet (UV) changes are also investigated. It is found that recovery of ozone during the period of the simulations gives rise to reduced stratospheric temperature decreases and UV levels are still slightly higher in general than in previous calculations for 1980.